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From: Forbes - Why Nate Silver Matters
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2013/07/22/why-nate-silver-matters/
文中提到
Automating Patterns
Ria Persad is one of those people born with extraordinary gifts. She started her research at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory when she was 12, began taking courses at Harvard at 14 and worked at the legendary Institute for Advanced Study, before the age of 20. She also performs as a concert pianist under her married name, Ria Carlo.
In an earlier age, she would most likely be relegated to academia, where she would spend her days writing arcane formulas on a blackboard that only a handful of people in the world could understand. Today, however, she runs a thriving business, Statweather, which consults for the energy trading industry.
Persad compares her work to how algorithmic trading has replaced intuition on Wall Street and says, “The program—not a human—does the pattern recognition, the bias and error adjustments of models, the tracking, and makes the “judgment call” based upon the most dynamically optimal combination of models.”
In other words, she’s not like your friendly neighborhood weatherman trying to predict if you should take your umbrella with you today or not, but uses over a century of data to determine weather patterns months in advance and her accuracy is 74%, nearly double what conventional methods achieve.
She also notes that, much like journalists at the dawn of the digital age, traditional meteorologists see her automated methods as a threat. No surprise there.
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發表於 13-7-23 10:12
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